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Tigers Pitching and Dominance

Saturday, March 29, 2008 @ 8:13 pm

There is a new blog that I’ve been following in the past couple of weeks called Saber-Scouting. It’s a mix of stats and traditional scouting information, I’d suggest you give it a read if you have not. Today they posted a discussion on a statistic called PTO% or Pitches Toward Outs stating it to be a measure of a given pitchers dominance.

Whether or not this statistic measures “dominance” it is still a good look at how efficiently a pitcher gets through an opposing lineup. The folks at Saber-Scouting looked at how each starting pitcher that received CY Young votes fared in 2007 and had Justin Verlander ranking 12th out of 16 with 28.9%. While it’s interesting to look at starters, relievers have the same if not more importance on dominating opposing lineups. They are called upon to get quick outs and shut down a batter with inherited runners on base.

Since they only took a look at perceived “aces” for each team, I’ve calculated the stat for each Tiger pitcher including relievers. This is based on 2007 stats for pitchers who saw at least 20 innings of work.

Starting Pitcher IP SO Pitches PTO%
Jeremy Bonderman 174.3

145

2724 29.84%
Justin Verlander 201.7 183 3354 28.95%
Nate Robertson 177.7 119 2889 26.69%
Dontrelle Willis 205.3 146 3474 26.13%
Kenny Rogers 63 36 1015 25.71%

You almost could have guessed at the results here without having to look at the statistics. Jeremy Bonderman racks up strikeouts and usually doesn’t throw many pitches whether he’s killing opposing batters or getting killed. Kenny Rogers is the opposite of Jeremy falling more into the ‘Finesse’ category of pitching relying on location and the defense behind him to make plays on balls hit.

Relief Pitcher IP SO Pitches PTO%
Bobby Seay 46.3 38 743 28.92%
Joel Zumaya 33.7 27 551 28.15%
Fernando Rodney 50.7 54 934 27.85%
Yorman Bazardo 23.7 15 370 27.32%
Jason Grilli 79.7 62 1374 26.43%
Todd Jones 61.3 33 961 26.00%
Zach Miner 53.7 34 945 24.24%

Again, no large surprises here except maybe Zach Miner. Miner scored rather bad with this statistic not only when compared with other relievers but all Tiger pitchers. For fun I ran Joel Zumaya’s 2006 season and he had a PTO% of 31.15. I hope he can return to form.

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Tigers pick up LHP Aaron Fultz

Saturday, March 29, 2008 @ 2:29 pm

The Detroit Free Press is reporting that the Tigers have acquired lefty Aaron Fultz who was designated for assignment from the Indians four days ago.

Fultz had an awful spring ending with an 11.88 ERA, 16 hits and 3 walks over 8.1 innings of work. This prompted the Indians to DFA him even though they had already picked up his 1.5M option for the 2008 season. Fultz had a strong start to 2007 then struggled after getting injured:

“He was a guy who, prior to the injury, pitched effectively for us,” Shapiro said. “He never really got back to that form after [the injury]. I’m sure he’s a guy who can still help someone in the big leagues, but our desire was to take that spot in the bullpen and use that spot as an area where we try to get better.”

Details of the contract are not available, that I can find, but it appears to be a minor-league contract. Low risk, high reward type of deal as far as I can tell. I’m sure that the Indians didn’t expect that team to be the Detroit Tigers. Fultz could add another lefty to the Tigers pen, behind Seay, if he can return to form.

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Breaking down the Tiger bullpen

Saturday, March 29, 2008 @ 10:38 am

The Detroit bullpen appears to be the largest vulnerability to this otherwise solid 2008 squad. Questions around Todd Jones ability to hold back batters have risen after a terrible spring with Todd himself expressing doubts. At the same time there was plenty of good seen in Denny Bautista, Bobby Seay and Yorman Bazardo this spring. Those three will be the key to this bullpen and depended on to hold leads until the return of Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya.

Below is a look at each pitchers 2007 big league performance and 2008 projections. Not outstanding but, in the belief of Jim Leyland, it is enough with potential to significantly beat out the projections.

  2007 Stats     2008 Projected ERA
Pitcher Throw GB/FB IP BB SO WHIP ERA     Chone Marcel ZiPS
Denny Bautista RHP 0.71 8.7 4 8 2.538 12.46 4.73 5.14 4.91
Yorman Bazardo RHP 1.36 23.7 5 15 1.014 2.28 5.20 3.98 5.04
Jason Grilli RHP 1.14 79.7 32 62 1.418 4.74 4.50 4.56 4.31
Todd Jones RHP 1.40 61.1 23 33 1.42 4.26 4.21 4.21 3.75
Aquilino Lopez RHP 1.04 17.3 6 7 1.385 5.19 4.36 4.50 5.29
Zach Miner RHP 2.04 53.7 22 34 1.453 3.02 4.89 4.30 4.76
Bobby Seay LHP 0.86 46.3 15 38 1.144 2.33 4.07 4.14 3.94

In other news, Tigers 2003 first-round draft pick Kyle Sleeth has called it quits. To me this feels much like the end of an era. When Sleeth was picked he was hung up as the Tigers future ace, the pick that was going to help save the organization. Detroit, for the lack of a better word, stunk at the time and hope was all we had.

Things have changed dramatically and while I don’t like seeing such a potential talent not live up to original expectations this has the feeling of an end to an era.

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Tigers finalize 2008 Opening Day 25-man Roster

Saturday, March 29, 2008 @ 9:57 am

Comerica ParkAfter last nights game Tiger GM Dave Dombrowski and Manager Jim Leyland made the final cuts to form the 25-man roster. The only roster slots still available going into last night were for the bullpen and a utility outfielder or backup catcher. The pitchers who were vying for the last available slot were few and many assumed, myself included, that a trade was imminent especially after LOOGY Tim Byrdak was released. A trade did not happen and it continues to appear to be unlikely in the short term:

When asked if that meant there was no longer a chance the Tigers would make a last-minute deal, Leyland said, “My boss (general manager Dave Dombrowski) said it was OK to tell you that’s the team.”

For now the remaining bullpen slot will be filled with Aquilino Lopez who saw limited innings last year and spent most of the year with Toledo where he was dominant. This leaves Detroit with only one left-hander in the bullpen which points to changes in the future. Bobby Seay won’t be available everyday and will be called upon to pitch long relief from time to time.

The shocker, if you can call it that after the speculation the last few days, was the selection of 24-year old Clete Thomas to round out the the final utility role. Having never seen a pitch at the Triple-A level and spending the 2007 season in Erie where he struck out at a fair clip I’m surprised he was chosen. This decision likely had much more to do with his defensive and baserunning ability than prowess at the place. Leyland had glowing things to say about Clete, which threw me a bit off guard based on Jims usual statements:

“I told him, ‘You’re going to have a big-league career and probably end up playing every day,’ ” Leyland said. “But this will be a little lesson for you for later in your career when you slow down a little bit. You kind of prepare yourself now to make sure you’re ready (as a part-time player then).”

As one who enjoys monitoring the minor leagues and watching prospects I do look forward to seeing how Thomas handles the big leagues. As one who has high-hopes for this team and wants to see some wins I’m a bit stumped. I can only imagine the team believes that with the rest of the lineup as solid as a rock, that a few AB’s from a rookie won’t impact the team.

The Detroit Tiger Weblog has the complete roster.

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D-Train, Clete Thomas and other Tiger news

Thursday, March 27, 2008 @ 8:59 am

D-Train is a Wreck

Dontrelle Willis has failed to make a good first impressions this spring ending with an abysmal 8.64 ERA. His ERA isn’t the only stat that is wild for him this spring, he’s been completely unable to throw strikes. His OBP for opposing batters is .477, 2.40 WHIP (Walks Hits per Inning Pitched) and has thrown 4 wild pitches. That’s three more than any other Tiger pitcher. Additionally, opposing teams are stealing bases against him without fear as he’s allowed 5 stolen bases in just 6 outings. This could also be due to him concentrating on throwing strikes and paying no attention to runners.

As with Tim Byrdak yesterday, there don’t seem to be any excuses/reasons coming from either Chuck Hernandez or Dontrell himself:

“He’s working hard at trying to get himself back in step,” pitching coach Chuck Hernandez said. “He knows his overall consistency needs to improve, and he’s working hard at that.”

Willis’ next start is scheduled for the fifth game of the regular season, against the White Sox.

“I hope it clicks when the bell rings,” Willis said. “If not, I’ll continue to work hard.”

I hope it clicks too. His control won’t likely improve all that dramatically and has been on a steady decline the past few years. Below is a chart showing his Ball/Strike ratio and WHIP over his major league career.

D-Train WHIP

Any of those numbers are markedly better than his numbers this spring.

Clete Thomas is a big leaguer?

Clete ThomasThere has been quite a bit of talk about statements made by Jim Leyland regarding Tiger minor leaguer Clete Thomas and a possibility of him breaking camp with the big league team. If you don’t know much about Thomas, as I did, Lee did a great writeup on him at Tiger Tales.

This makes for a great story but I’d put his chances at a long shot. While he has no doubt caught the eye of some of the Major League coaches, he has yet to see a pitch at even the AAA level. The view the coaches have gotten of him this spring has been small, a total of 23 AB’s and mostly in late innings against other teams minor leaguers. Going with an unproven player to start a season where expectations are extremely high would be a major shock.

However, Leyland is one who always goes with who he thinks is best. He did with Verlander and Zumaya only a couple years ago, though the circumstances here are significantly different. We’ll have to wait an see how this plays out, but Freddy Guzman will likely be backing up Inge in center field on Monday.

[UPDATE] - Freddy Guzman has been placed on waivers. I’ll still be surprised to see Thomas break camp with the big league but this is one step closer for him.

Other Tiger News:

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Tim Byrdak adds to Tigers bullpen worries (UPDATED: Byrdak Released)

Wednesday, March 26, 2008 @ 8:38 am

Tiger lefty reliever Tim Byrdak had yet another rough outing in a string of rough outings this spring. With the Tiger bullpen posing the largest hole to the team for this season, Tim is certainly doing nothing to instill confidence, though he seems to still have Jim Leylands confidence.

Reading through the article from the Detroit News did nothing to explain away the struggles that Byrdak has gone through. At least if he explained how Byrdak was working on a specific pitch or his mechanics were off or anything that can be readily fixed I’d feel much better. However, this was the best that Jim could muster:

“I just think he’s pressing. You can see it. He threw a lot of balls down that weren’t bad pitches, but were too far down.

“I think a lot of times when guys struggle like that, they want to see the result before they throw the pitch. That’s all I told him when I first went to the mound. Slow things down a little bit.

If Leyland believes there is no worry here and this funk is something that Tim will break out of then I can only take his word. However Byrdak has had a hard time returning to his 2007 form all spring. Below is a game-by-game log of his last 5 outings which covers half of spring.

Date IP H R ER BB SO HR
March 25 0 1 3 3 4 0 0
March 23 1 2 2 2 2 1 0
March 18 1 6 6 6 1 1 2
March 15 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
March 12 2 3 1 1 0 1 0

This just isn’t good enough and in the regular season amounts to at least two losses.

The 2007 season can only be explained as a breakout year for Tim. His stats from previous years showed no indications that he would perform to the level that he did. Before the season he was dealing with a hurt elbow before being cut by the Orioles and subsequently picked up by the Tigers. The big question is: Can he produce again?

Surprisingly, PECOTA (subscription) doesn’t see a massive regression though far from his 3.20 ERA from 2007 with a projected 4.49 ERA. Other projections aren’t far off either ranging from a 4.10 ERA (MINER) to 4.69 (MARCEL) with him keeping a similar BB/9 and HR/9. Whatever his problem, Detroit needs to figure out whether he will produce.. and fast.

[UPDATE] - Wow, minutes after I write this Tim Byrdak was released by the team. This mornings paper had quotes (linked below) from Leyland emphatically stating that Byrdak was part of this team and only hours later he is released. This reminded me of other conflicting stories last week pointed out by Kurt @ Mack Ave Tigers.

Dave Dombrowski had to make a move and we can speculate for now if this move precedes an upcoming trade:

“For us, it was a matter of making a decision today,” said Dombrowski, whose team must finalize its 25-man roster ahead of breaking camp Thursday and preparing for Monday’s season opener against Kansas City at Comerica Park.

“We just didn’t feel comfortable that he could help our big-league club. Last night didn’t help his chances.”

Let’s hope there is some help on the way.

In other news:

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Now leading off for Detroit.. Edgar Rentaria

Tuesday, March 25, 2008 @ 8:10 am

Edgar Rentaria covers second baseWith the broken hand of Granderson forcing him to the 15-day DL to start the season, Jim Leyland has reluctantly turned to Edgar Rentaria to fill the leadoff role. According to this mornings Detroit Free Press, Jim is less than enthusiastic about the change. Their are a number of points and statements made within this article that throughly confused me.

The first is confusion over Jim’s unhappiness with the change given that Edgar Rentaria would fill the leadoff role for the Tigers better than Curtis Granderson, while still not the ideal leadoff man. Over the last three years Edgar has had a higher OBP than Curtis Granderson while Curtis has out slugged Edgar each season. Given this I’d rather see them swapped in the lineup after Curtis returns in 3 weeks, though with Jim managing this is highly unlikely.

The second confusing point is that, according to the article, Leyland reiterated that Pudge Rodriguez is likely to continue to leadoff against lefties. I understand that Pudge is hot this spring but this doesn’t make any sense. The entire initial purpose for batting Pudge first when a LHP is on the mound was due to Curtis Granderson’s horrendous OBP against lefties. Edgar does not have this problem and over his career has hit better against lefties.

I know that Jim loves to tinker with the lineup to the point of over-thinking it but I am failing to understand his logic. The below comment certainly didn’t help:

“Renteria is not a huge, huge RBI guy,” Leyland said. “But he’s one of the best in baseball at knocking in huge RBIs.”

Maybe he’s been spending too much time with Dusty Baker in the Grapefruit League. I hope one consolation for Jim is that while Edgar would no longer be in a prime RBI slot he will now be in a position to score even more runs. Something I’m sure Leyland and Baker can both agree on.

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Report: Curtis Granderson to the Disabled List

Sunday, March 23, 2008 @ 9:31 am

Curtis Granderson Autograph SigningDanny Knobler is reporting that Curtis Granderson will be headed to the disabled list with broken middle finger to start the season.

…the Tigers put Granderson on the disabled list with a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger. Granderson is expected to miss three weeks.

Curtis was hit by a pitch in yesterdays matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies, but by most accounts he was going to be just fine. I’ll assume that we will be seeing some of Ryan Raburn filling in to cover the large outfield at Comerica Park to start the season. Jason Beck also sees Raburn breaking camp with the team now. Ian also mentions Brandon Inge, unlikely in my option, or Freddy Guzman as potential replacements as well.

This has implications beyond who’s manning centerfield for the Tigers but for the Tiger lineup. Curtis had locked down the leadoff spot which now needs filled. I’d like to see Gary Sheffield be placed there since his hitting is in decline but he still is bringing a big OBP to the team. I don’t think that is likely and we’ll see Placido Polanco or Pudge (ugh) instead.

I’m hoping this is an early april fools joke along with speculations of a Dontrelle Willis injury.

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Tigers open the wallet wider for Miguel Cabrera

Saturday, March 22, 2008 @ 9:28 pm

Miguel CabreraI found this over at the Detroit Tiger Weblog, according to sources at ESPN the Tigers have signed Miguel Cabrera to an 8-year 153.3M dollar contract. The size of this deal has been widely speculated with some going as far to suggest that Cabrera would become the next $200M dollar man. That obviously did not happen but having this sorted out before the season is a good thing.

While details aren’t available, the text of the ESPN article leads me to believe that this deal begins after this season with Cabrera playing under his existing 1-year deal:

Cabrera, 24, was eligible for arbitration in 2009 and could become a free agent after the season ended. He will earn $11.3 million in 2008, and then an average of $19 million per year through 2016.

This will be clarified as the deal is formally announced. My initial reaction is that I’m very glad to see this deal get done. I had assumed it would or the initial trade would not have been completed anyway. This, I believe, is the largest contract in Tiger history and Cabrera is certainly worthy of it.

[UPDATE] - Some very quick reactions around the blogosphere and news outlets to this deal. The general consensus is that Detroit got a good deal as expectations had been raised for a substantially larger deal, though this is a significant sum of money as the ESPN article now points out:

Overall, it would become the fourth-richest contract in baseball history. Cabrera would trail Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez ($275 million), Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter ($189 million) and Boston outfielder Manny Ramirez ($160 million) in the total salary package listing.

Detroit will be getting Miguel during the prime of his playing years which sets this contract apart from the others. Alex Rodriguez was 32 when he signed his recent $275M 10-year contract, though he was 25 when he signed a $252M deal with Texas. Derek Jeter was 27 when his deal with the Yankees was signed and Manny was 29 years old. The Tigers have likely signed a player who’s skills will increase through the contract and Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus points out that PECOTA doesn’t have Cabrera in decline until past 32 years old.

Other Links:

[UPDATE-2] - The deal is a 7-year extension to the existing 1-year 11M dollar contract according to Danny Knobler at MLive. This puts Cabrera in Detroit through the 2015 season, so still very long.

It’s an eight-year deal, for an average of $19 million a year, or $152 million total. But the eight years includes 2008 (Cabrera had already signed a one-year deal at $11.3 million), so the new contract will run through 2015.

So in reality, Cabrera is signing for seven additional years, and a little more than $140 million.

On a side note, Al Avila made an appearance on the FSN broadcast today and didn’t confirm or deny the rumor, saying only that they were progressing in negotiations. I’m assuming that since he is a exec with the ballclub he cannot/won’t confirm anything until the deal is complete. According to the ESPN sources, the only thing left is a physical on Monday.

Below is opinion on this deal from Buster Olney:

Frankly, I think a bit too much is made on his weight and ability to keep it off. Sure, he’s in better shape and I’m sure that helps him. But the biggest question facing Cabrera’s ability in the future isn’t his weight.

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