Joker Marchant Stadium

• First appearance of Curtis Granderson as a NY Yankee against the Detroit Tigers
• First appearance of 2009 1st Round Draft Pick Jacob Turner
• Some solid innings pitched by Dontrelle Willis – Happy to see but I’m still very far from having much trust in him.
• My first glimpse of new 2B Scott Sizemore and CF Austin Jackson – I actually did see Sizemore when he was at the big league camp during 2008 Spring Training, but other than my pictures of that trip I don’t remember much.
• Saw Phil Coke pitch a few innings, he’ll apparently be in the bullpen this year but had some rough outings while I was there.
• Witnessed rough outing by new Tiger Max Scherzer.
• Many Tigers prospects made appearances such as (in no particular order) Casey Crosby, Robbie Weinhardt, Gustavo Nunez, Ryan Streiby, Audy Ciriaco, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells, Brent Dlugach and Daniel Schlereth.
• Solid home run by Braves top prospect Jason Heyward – While not a positive for the Tigers, I was pretty excited to see Heyward made the trip to Lakeland.
• Gerald Laird hits a Grand Slam with his retooled swing.

My only disappointments were not seeing any playing time from Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Jose Valverde, Rick Porcello or Justin Verlander. Many of whom I’ve seen before and will in the upcoming season – so I’m OK with it. Twenty-one photos after the jump.

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves

Carlos Guillen headed to the dugout after taking some groundballs at 2B

Braves top prospect Jason Heyward

Max Scherzer started the game against the Braves

Jason Heyward at-bat - He hit a long home run to right field

Scherzer pulled from the game - He got only a single out that was due to an Omar Infante screw-up.

Willis getting checked out after a pickoff attempt to first base

The familiar Dontrelle Willis pitch delivery - You could tell he was energized on the mound.

Scott Sizemore at-bat - Get use to this odd stance that feels similar to Ichiro

Gustavo Nunez at shortstop and Brent Dlugach at second base

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees

Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi chat during batting practice

Curtis Granderson as a New York Yankee - He got quite the welcome reception for a Yankee

Ryan Streiby at first base - He was very large making it no surprise that his power has been impressing many this spring.

Austin Jackson chats with Gene Lamont while on 3rd base

Tiger prospect Jacob Turner throws to his first batter

Curtis Granderson stands in the batters box waiting on the delivery by Jacob Turner

Jacob Turner concentrates while Curtis Granderson leads off of first base

Another of Jacob Turner - He had a rather effortless delivery while hitting 94 with his fastball

Audy Ciriaco catches an infield popup while playing third base.

Audy Ciriaco at third base with Adam Everett at shortstop. Audy was surprisingly tall or maybe it was just in contrast to Nunez who was not.

Daniel Schlereth looking home while Strieby holds the runner on first base. Schlereth had control problems this day.

Gustavo Nunez slides into second on a Yankee double-play

I haven’t posted in quite a while, but since my last post was an article regarding Edwin Jackson then it may be fitting that my new article also concerns him. I wanted to take a minute to put out my viewpoint on the Tigers trade of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson that has created major waves here in Detroit. Numerous arguments have been thrown around as to why this deal is bad for the Tigers or how the excuses given for the deal don’t make sense. It’s clear that the prevailing opinion around town is that the Tigers made a desperate move that is ultimately bad for the team. I believe this deal makes quite a bit of sense for Detroit and was a solid move by Tiger GM Dave Dombrowski.

It’s very much true that the seeds that put the Tigers in their current situation were sown by Dombrowski. However, setting blame for past trades and some troublesome contracts aside, this trade has put the Tiger organization in a better position in 2010 and beyond. The Tigers were not able to make the postseason with their current team and the farm system is not in good shape – relief was not on the way.

Below are the key reasons why I believe this deal is a good thing for Detroit now and sets them up to be even better in the future.

1. Curtis Granderson is not going to rebound back to his 2007 productivity levels

   It may be dangerous to start with Curtis, but most of the discussion has surrounded him with this trade. Many opinions have been very emotionally driven due to Curtis’s character. I’m a large Curtis fan as well and attended a few of his charity events during his tenure here. However, he posed numerous challenges to the team and has been on a steady decline in productivity.

   While I do believe that 2009 was a down year for Curtis, it’s likely that his long term productivity is going to fall far short of what was once believed. He has failed at becoming the lead off hitter that it was hoped he would be. His walk rate has gotten much better over the years and he has cut his strikeout rate (though regressed in 2009), but the corresponding dip in batting average has negated those improvements. Additionally, his inability to improve against left handed pitchers has posed a serious liability for Detroit. This has almost reached the point where a center field platoon needed to be, and was, discussed as an option. While his contract isn’t extravagantly expensive, it is far to high for a platoon player.

   To fill the hole left by Curtis, the Tigers acquired Austin Jackson from the NY Yankees. Austin was the 2008 Baseball America #1 rated prospect for the Yankees and rated #2 by John Sickels. From all accounts he’s ready to compete for the starting role immediately and is ready for duty defensively. The major question left for Austin is whether he can develop his projected power, something that has eluded him.

   Dave Dombrowski was taking a risk whether he kept Curtis Granderson as a Tiger or not. He chose to take the risk that has a higher ceiling by gathering a number of high-quality relievers (Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke) and an extremely solid center field prospect in return. It also happens that this is the cheaper route, but that is only an additional positive.

2. Edwin Jackson is due for serious regression

   I was a big fan of the trade for Edwin Jackson and I still am. He’s the largest and most critical player that the Tigers lost in this trade and I believe this has been overshadowed by the town’s love of Curtis Granderson. Solid starting pitching is very hard to find and valued extremely high around the league, so to let him go is a huge risk. That said, Edwin threw up some serious red flags throughout the 2009 season that led many, myself included, to believe that his first half production isn’t here to stay.

   His 2009 season was impressive and a welcome surprise, particularly the first 3-4 months of service. However, throughout the year his stats across the board were in major decline. This doesn’t include only his ERA, but also his home run rate, K/BB rate and WHIP. This wasn’t the case of a front-line starter running into problems but a back of the rotation starter regressing back to his career stats. Statistics Projections, such as Chone, also see a setback on the horizon from his 2009 campaign.

   In return the Tigers have received young mid-rotation starter in Max Scherzer. A former first-round draft pick from 2006, he has a higher potential long-term ceiling than Edwin Jackson, not to mention projected statistics better than those of Jackson in 2010 (Chone – 4.27 ERA, 189K/62BB). He has already proved he can take the rigors of an entire season and pitched admirably. The Tigers, again, are taking a risk but one that has a higher potential payoff and is cheaper.

3. Tigers were not going to extend Edwin into Free Agency years

   Taking talent levels between players out of the discussion for a moment, Detroit wouldn’t, or couldn’t, pay what the market was going to demand for Edwin Jackson to be in Detroit long-term. They’ve gotten burned on signing long-term deals immediately following breakout years (Nate Robertson) and decided to “sell high” on Jackson. Keep in mind that the primary signing on their mind is Justin Verlander, so could Detroit have afforded him? Likely, but why risk it when you can get a solid mid-rotation starter in Scherzer with many years of team control?

4. Potentially solved closer problem with Daniel Schlereth

   A hole the Tigers do have is at the Closer position. They lost Brandon Lyon for certain and Fernando Rodney is still up-in-the-air. Joel Zumaya, with all his injuries, is a completely unknown quantity and has not been the Zumaya of 2006 when he has been healthy. This leaves a major question mark for Detroit going into 2010.

   Daniel Schlereth was a 2008 first round draft pick and has shown some real talent in Double-A during 2009. He was Baseball America’s #3 Prospect for the Arizona Diamonbacks in 2009 and ranked #2 for John Sickels. He is a very hard thrower with a good fastball and has a power curveball; a combo that Dave Dombrowski and Tigers management love.

   My bet is the Tigers will not feel he needs any more seasoning in the minor league levels. Similarly to how they felt about Ryan Perry, a move that paid off. Would they trust him to come in and close out games in 2009? Doubtful, but longer term he presents a very strong option.

This deal isn’t a no-brainer and has huge risks for the Tigers. However, it is far from a “fire sale” and looking at the deal person for person, I believe the Tigers made a decision based on talent and needs, both short term and long term; not from the need to pare back salary. Dave Dombrowski saw an opportunity to drop salary and shore up talent weaknesses with a single deal and took that risk. It will take more than one year to determine whether this trade was net positive for Detroit, but one thing was clear – change was needed and Dombrowski isn’t afraid to change when it’s due.

My only nit-pick is that Edwin is another right-hander leaving the only viable lefty options being Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson, and I’m not certain Willis is really that viable currently. Edwin’s 2008 season was quite a bit better than previous seasons and saw his walk rate drop and strikeouts rise.

Adam Everett

It’s tough to get behind the Adam Everett signing, though also hard to complain much due to the very low level of commitment on the Tigers part. Everett was signed to a 1-year deal worth $1M plus incentives which are likely based around playing time. To sum up his offensive ability, he is a low OBP, no power hitter who hit .184 against RHP in 98 at-bats last year. Suffice to say, the Tigers interest in Adam is solely in his defensive abilities. Unfortunately, Detroit already has one of these caliber players in Ramon Santiago, probably even better.

I’m not sure why Dombrowski’s confidence in Ramon Santiago lasting out a whole year is so low. I certainly understood, and supported, their search for a shortstop. Available everyday shortstops, such as Jack Wilson, Cesar Izturis, and to some degree Rafael Furcal, weren’t the greatest of options but would have elevated the team.

Seems the team could have just relied on Ramon Santiago, at least he might have a chance to continue his outstanding 2008 season. Doubtful, but I’d bet on Ramon over Everett any day.

Gerald Laird

The Laird trade is a significantly more solid pick up with future potential. Detroit gave up two RHP prospects, Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo. Moscoso is the real gem in this deal for Texas and he had a breakout year last year but is 25 and has also been prone to injury. On the flip side, this is also what Detroit used to justify letting Jair Jurrjens go.

Not a bad day.

Ramon Hernandez (licensed under Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0)

1. He’s due at least $9M over the next two years, $8M in ’09 with a 2010 Club Option worth $8.5M ($1M buyout). Baltimore signed Ramon to a 4 year $27.5M dollar deal after the ’05 season. His first year after the signing was his best when he hit .275/.343/.479, and has regressed a bit in each the last two years hitting .257/.308/.406 last year in 133 games.
2. He’s blocking Matt Wieters whom was recently placed as the #2 prospect in all of baseball by MILB.com. While Wieters has not played above Double-A, he is widely eyed by O’s fans to be on the team when they break spring camp.

The Tigers are certainly not planning on taking on that type of salary burden, however Baltimore has signaled that they’re willing to eat quite a bit of that salary to move him. Depending on how much they’re willing to eat, a trade might not look much different than one for Laird who’s arbitration eligible and due to get ~$3M and potentially much more in 2010 before he’s a free agent. Baltimore’s needs aren’t much different than the Texas Rangers in they both very much need starting pitchers:

“We’ve made it clear that solidifying our rotation is a priority,” said Orioles manager Dave Trembley. “The groundwork has been laid. We’re going to see what we can do.”

Hernandez is a more veteran presence who would be better in platoon with Dusty Ryan and give Detroit a cheap option for 2010 if prospects James Skelton and/or Alex Avila aren’t quite ready. I, for one, have high hopes for Skelton who’s ability to take a walk has impressed. Laird is in a different position as he prepares for potential free agency in 2010 and will look to be very aggressive with his agent Scott Boras.

One issue that might get in the way is that Detroit is part of his limited no-trade clause. However, with a powerful switch-hitting youngster behind him and not many in the market for catchers this season he might be persuaded to take a starting job here.

The system has classified many fastballs here, but I’m skeptical as to the accuracy of the pitch identifications. For now though, I’ll have to trust that it’s correct or figure out what the type_confidence field means. That said, it’s probably not far off as thirteen of the pitches, in which we have data, are above 90MPH. The fastest ball that the team hit out was 94.7MPH, which was Miguel Cabrera’s third home run of the year against Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia. Below is a graph detailing the speed of each pitch the Tigers hit for a homer:

The slowest was a 73.3MPH curveball to Marcus Thames, his only of the year so far. This particular ball hung right up into the middle of the strikezone and wasn’t inside (since those are normally the pitches that Marcus will take deep). Actually, most of the pitches that the Tigers have taken deep were right down the heart of the plate, as you can see below:

The strike zone above is just an approximate since each batter will be slightly different, but this will give you an idea of pitch location. Tigers haven’t taken inside pitches deep much this year with the ball to the right of the image being a home run by Ivan Rodriguez.

To opposing pitchers, leave a fast ball up in the strike zone and the Tigers will make you pay, though this is likely true with any team. When compared against other teams in the Major Leagues, Detroit is now tied for 5th with the most home runs (10 teams have 27 or more home runs) and 8th in slugging percentage.

Below are the bullpen stats for the last 6 games:

Starters need to come around now because the team isn’t going to score 19 runs every night. But it sure is fun when they do :)

I’m a fan of this move on its face but this is one change that will need to be monitored as there are a number of ongoing concerns:

• Carlos Guillen’s health – The initial reason for moving Carlos Guillen to first base from shortstop was concern over his health, specifically his knees. This issue prompted the trade of Jair Jurrjens to Atlanta for Edgar Rentaria, a trade that is looking a bit less needed. That said, Carlos’s hamstring is causing him major issues already this year and it won’t heal quickly with constant third-base play.
• Cabrera’s first base defense – Miguel has not had many innings at first base and it might take some time to get use to the role. It was becoming quite apparent that over the 21 games at first for Carlos, he was far from solid at the position.
• Left field offensive production – If the offensive production that the Tigers get from left field does not improve then a move of Cabrera to left field might make some sense. Jaques Jones and Marcus Thames, the latter of whom has not gotten much playing time, do not begin to step it up then it’s hard to justify not moving Cabrera there. Playing Brandon Inge at third-base won’t give you less offense and will boost defense drastically.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Brandon Inge is less than thrilled, actually he used the word ‘livid’, with the move. As with the earlier problems with Inge, which I didn’t pay any mind, I don’t care. But within the article there was this rationale for not playing Cabrera in left field.

“(Cabrera) doesn’t run very well,” Dombrowski says. “Our ballpark is really big in left field. If you put a heavy-legged left fielder in our ballpark, it’s going to catch up to you.”

Makes some sense, but then again, Marcus Thames falls directly into this same category. Regardless, This is a positive move for the team and I agree with Leyland that this move makes the team better.

• Bottom 1st: Curtis Granderson singles on a ground ball to second baseman Alwin Perez.
• Bottom 3rd: Curtis Granderson flies out to left fielder David Lough.
• Bottom 6th: Curtis Granderson triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Wilson Tucker.
• Bottom 8th: Curtis Granderson lines out to center fielder Adrian Ortiz.

He was unable to score off the triple. The Whitecaps faced the Burlington Bee’s who started Alexander Caldera who was Kansas City’s 13th round draft pick from ’07. Caldera was making his third start of the season and had been shutting down lefties allowing only 3 hits, 0 walks and striking out 7 over 6 innings.

Great to see Curtis making consistent contact. Jim Leyland had stated that he wanted Curtis to get 25 at-bats in the minor leagues before he joined the team but according to Danny Knobler that wasn’t a literal statement:

“I had a good talk with him,” Leyland said. “We just want to make sure he has enough at-bats so that he comes back and can be effective. It’s one thing to have enough to play, and another to have enough to be effective.

“He might go down there for three days and feel like he’s right on it, and wants to come back. Those are the (baseball) rules. If they say they’re ready, they’re ready.”

I suspect we’ll see Curtis pretty soon if he continues to feel no pain.

Another fun game down at Comerica Park tonight. Nate Robertson took the mound and looked very rough right out of the gate but was able to pull himself together and pitch 6.1 innings. This might not sound like a long outing but for Tiger starters this year Nate’s outing was an extended one.

It felt quite cold out there with a slight breeze coming into the park the entire game but the Tiger bats remained hot. Four home runs were hit between Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera. For the Twins, Craig Monroe returned to Detroit and had some success for the first time this year. He’s been as cold for Minnesota as he was for Detroit.

Below are a few more pictures from today’s matchup:

1. Robertson being pulled for “Left Lat Tightness”. Since I was at the game I didn’t know what was wrong until I arrived back home but while at the game I didn’t see anything wrong.

2. Lefty Clay Rapada took the mound in the eighth inning to face Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. He fell behind both batters but won out in the end.

3. Magglio Ordonez doubles in Placido Polanco to tie the game. Placido’s one-out walk in the eighth was key to the comeback.

4. Jessie Crain had a large number of mound visitors but it didn’t seem to help, whatever the strategy was.

5. Miguel Cabrera touching home after his 2-run shot to left field.