Joker Marchant Stadium

• First appearance of Curtis Granderson as a NY Yankee against the Detroit Tigers
• First appearance of 2009 1st Round Draft Pick Jacob Turner
• Some solid innings pitched by Dontrelle Willis – Happy to see but I’m still very far from having much trust in him.
• My first glimpse of new 2B Scott Sizemore and CF Austin Jackson – I actually did see Sizemore when he was at the big league camp during 2008 Spring Training, but other than my pictures of that trip I don’t remember much.
• Saw Phil Coke pitch a few innings, he’ll apparently be in the bullpen this year but had some rough outings while I was there.
• Witnessed rough outing by new Tiger Max Scherzer.
• Many Tigers prospects made appearances such as (in no particular order) Casey Crosby, Robbie Weinhardt, Gustavo Nunez, Ryan Streiby, Audy Ciriaco, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells, Brent Dlugach and Daniel Schlereth.
• Solid home run by Braves top prospect Jason Heyward – While not a positive for the Tigers, I was pretty excited to see Heyward made the trip to Lakeland.
• Gerald Laird hits a Grand Slam with his retooled swing.

My only disappointments were not seeing any playing time from Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Jose Valverde, Rick Porcello or Justin Verlander. Many of whom I’ve seen before and will in the upcoming season – so I’m OK with it. Twenty-one photos after the jump.

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves

Carlos Guillen headed to the dugout after taking some groundballs at 2B

Braves top prospect Jason Heyward

Max Scherzer started the game against the Braves

Jason Heyward at-bat - He hit a long home run to right field

Scherzer pulled from the game - He got only a single out that was due to an Omar Infante screw-up.

Willis getting checked out after a pickoff attempt to first base

The familiar Dontrelle Willis pitch delivery - You could tell he was energized on the mound.

Scott Sizemore at-bat - Get use to this odd stance that feels similar to Ichiro

Gustavo Nunez at shortstop and Brent Dlugach at second base

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees

Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi chat during batting practice

Curtis Granderson as a New York Yankee - He got quite the welcome reception for a Yankee

Ryan Streiby at first base - He was very large making it no surprise that his power has been impressing many this spring.

Austin Jackson chats with Gene Lamont while on 3rd base

Tiger prospect Jacob Turner throws to his first batter

Curtis Granderson stands in the batters box waiting on the delivery by Jacob Turner

Jacob Turner concentrates while Curtis Granderson leads off of first base

Another of Jacob Turner - He had a rather effortless delivery while hitting 94 with his fastball

Audy Ciriaco catches an infield popup while playing third base.

Audy Ciriaco at third base with Adam Everett at shortstop. Audy was surprisingly tall or maybe it was just in contrast to Nunez who was not.

Daniel Schlereth looking home while Strieby holds the runner on first base. Schlereth had control problems this day.

Gustavo Nunez slides into second on a Yankee double-play

I haven’t posted in quite a while, but since my last post was an article regarding Edwin Jackson then it may be fitting that my new article also concerns him. I wanted to take a minute to put out my viewpoint on the Tigers trade of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson that has created major waves here in Detroit. Numerous arguments have been thrown around as to why this deal is bad for the Tigers or how the excuses given for the deal don’t make sense. It’s clear that the prevailing opinion around town is that the Tigers made a desperate move that is ultimately bad for the team. I believe this deal makes quite a bit of sense for Detroit and was a solid move by Tiger GM Dave Dombrowski.

It’s very much true that the seeds that put the Tigers in their current situation were sown by Dombrowski. However, setting blame for past trades and some troublesome contracts aside, this trade has put the Tiger organization in a better position in 2010 and beyond. The Tigers were not able to make the postseason with their current team and the farm system is not in good shape – relief was not on the way.

Below are the key reasons why I believe this deal is a good thing for Detroit now and sets them up to be even better in the future.

1. Curtis Granderson is not going to rebound back to his 2007 productivity levels

   It may be dangerous to start with Curtis, but most of the discussion has surrounded him with this trade. Many opinions have been very emotionally driven due to Curtis’s character. I’m a large Curtis fan as well and attended a few of his charity events during his tenure here. However, he posed numerous challenges to the team and has been on a steady decline in productivity.

   While I do believe that 2009 was a down year for Curtis, it’s likely that his long term productivity is going to fall far short of what was once believed. He has failed at becoming the lead off hitter that it was hoped he would be. His walk rate has gotten much better over the years and he has cut his strikeout rate (though regressed in 2009), but the corresponding dip in batting average has negated those improvements. Additionally, his inability to improve against left handed pitchers has posed a serious liability for Detroit. This has almost reached the point where a center field platoon needed to be, and was, discussed as an option. While his contract isn’t extravagantly expensive, it is far to high for a platoon player.

   To fill the hole left by Curtis, the Tigers acquired Austin Jackson from the NY Yankees. Austin was the 2008 Baseball America #1 rated prospect for the Yankees and rated #2 by John Sickels. From all accounts he’s ready to compete for the starting role immediately and is ready for duty defensively. The major question left for Austin is whether he can develop his projected power, something that has eluded him.

   Dave Dombrowski was taking a risk whether he kept Curtis Granderson as a Tiger or not. He chose to take the risk that has a higher ceiling by gathering a number of high-quality relievers (Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke) and an extremely solid center field prospect in return. It also happens that this is the cheaper route, but that is only an additional positive.

2. Edwin Jackson is due for serious regression

   I was a big fan of the trade for Edwin Jackson and I still am. He’s the largest and most critical player that the Tigers lost in this trade and I believe this has been overshadowed by the town’s love of Curtis Granderson. Solid starting pitching is very hard to find and valued extremely high around the league, so to let him go is a huge risk. That said, Edwin threw up some serious red flags throughout the 2009 season that led many, myself included, to believe that his first half production isn’t here to stay.

   His 2009 season was impressive and a welcome surprise, particularly the first 3-4 months of service. However, throughout the year his stats across the board were in major decline. This doesn’t include only his ERA, but also his home run rate, K/BB rate and WHIP. This wasn’t the case of a front-line starter running into problems but a back of the rotation starter regressing back to his career stats. Statistics Projections, such as Chone, also see a setback on the horizon from his 2009 campaign.

   In return the Tigers have received young mid-rotation starter in Max Scherzer. A former first-round draft pick from 2006, he has a higher potential long-term ceiling than Edwin Jackson, not to mention projected statistics better than those of Jackson in 2010 (Chone – 4.27 ERA, 189K/62BB). He has already proved he can take the rigors of an entire season and pitched admirably. The Tigers, again, are taking a risk but one that has a higher potential payoff and is cheaper.

3. Tigers were not going to extend Edwin into Free Agency years

   Taking talent levels between players out of the discussion for a moment, Detroit wouldn’t, or couldn’t, pay what the market was going to demand for Edwin Jackson to be in Detroit long-term. They’ve gotten burned on signing long-term deals immediately following breakout years (Nate Robertson) and decided to “sell high” on Jackson. Keep in mind that the primary signing on their mind is Justin Verlander, so could Detroit have afforded him? Likely, but why risk it when you can get a solid mid-rotation starter in Scherzer with many years of team control?

4. Potentially solved closer problem with Daniel Schlereth

   A hole the Tigers do have is at the Closer position. They lost Brandon Lyon for certain and Fernando Rodney is still up-in-the-air. Joel Zumaya, with all his injuries, is a completely unknown quantity and has not been the Zumaya of 2006 when he has been healthy. This leaves a major question mark for Detroit going into 2010.

   Daniel Schlereth was a 2008 first round draft pick and has shown some real talent in Double-A during 2009. He was Baseball America’s #3 Prospect for the Arizona Diamonbacks in 2009 and ranked #2 for John Sickels. He is a very hard thrower with a good fastball and has a power curveball; a combo that Dave Dombrowski and Tigers management love.

   My bet is the Tigers will not feel he needs any more seasoning in the minor league levels. Similarly to how they felt about Ryan Perry, a move that paid off. Would they trust him to come in and close out games in 2009? Doubtful, but longer term he presents a very strong option.

This deal isn’t a no-brainer and has huge risks for the Tigers. However, it is far from a “fire sale” and looking at the deal person for person, I believe the Tigers made a decision based on talent and needs, both short term and long term; not from the need to pare back salary. Dave Dombrowski saw an opportunity to drop salary and shore up talent weaknesses with a single deal and took that risk. It will take more than one year to determine whether this trade was net positive for Detroit, but one thing was clear – change was needed and Dombrowski isn’t afraid to change when it’s due.

The system has classified many fastballs here, but I’m skeptical as to the accuracy of the pitch identifications. For now though, I’ll have to trust that it’s correct or figure out what the type_confidence field means. That said, it’s probably not far off as thirteen of the pitches, in which we have data, are above 90MPH. The fastest ball that the team hit out was 94.7MPH, which was Miguel Cabrera’s third home run of the year against Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia. Below is a graph detailing the speed of each pitch the Tigers hit for a homer:

The slowest was a 73.3MPH curveball to Marcus Thames, his only of the year so far. This particular ball hung right up into the middle of the strikezone and wasn’t inside (since those are normally the pitches that Marcus will take deep). Actually, most of the pitches that the Tigers have taken deep were right down the heart of the plate, as you can see below:

The strike zone above is just an approximate since each batter will be slightly different, but this will give you an idea of pitch location. Tigers haven’t taken inside pitches deep much this year with the ball to the right of the image being a home run by Ivan Rodriguez.

To opposing pitchers, leave a fast ball up in the strike zone and the Tigers will make you pay, though this is likely true with any team. When compared against other teams in the Major Leagues, Detroit is now tied for 5th with the most home runs (10 teams have 27 or more home runs) and 8th in slugging percentage.

Thomas never took an at-bat at even the Triple-A level before making the Tigers big league team and spent all of the 2007 season with the Double-A Erie Seawolves. There he showed acceptable hitting and decent patience but not much power. He ended the season with a .280/.359/405 line over 528 at-bats. One would expect such a youngster to come up and struggle for at least a little while as they adjust to big league pitching. Last year’s preseason favorite for AL ROY, Alex Gordon, certainly struggled before getting the hang of it late in the season and into the current season. I expected such a struggle for Clete but so far he seems very much at home.

With the help of MLB’s Gameday pitch-by-pitch data (called pitch f/x), we can take a look at what pitches opposing teams have been using trying to get him out. Get a good look at what pitches Thomas likes and which he is able to lay off. My intial expectations were to see him swinging at a number of out of the strike zone pitches and being a bit of a free swinger. He hadn’t, up until yesterday’s game, had a walk all season. Below is a look at all pitches, through yesterday (April 12th, 2008), that Clete has seen. For all graphs I have weeded out a number of bunts that he’s been asked to lay down (he’s a good bunter btw). The breakout shows balls put in play regardless of the result, called ball and strikes which include foul balls.

From this you can see that he has been a pretty good judge of the strike zone but does tend like swing at balls thrown outside a bit (keep in mind that he bats left handed so outside is to the left of the chart). Below is a further breakout of balls that were strikes which further shows that these are often ones he struggles with as well.

You can see with this strike chart that Clete will also swing at balls that are above the strike zone but has, thus far, been able to make contact and foul them off. His sweet spot, which is no surprise, is directly in the middle of the strike zone, if just a little outside. He hasn’t been able to successfully hit balls that are low in the strike zone though there has been few opportunities.

Just for completeness, below is a graph detailing all called ‘balls’ thrown to Thomas. He’s layed off some balls thrown on the edge of the strike zone, particularly pitches that are low. Other than a few, all are clearly outside the strike zone.

While his early success is very nice to see we should all keep our hopes in check. In 2006 Brent Clevlen was called up from Double-A and went on a tear through 31 games hitting .281 and slugging .641. This was promptly followed up by a very disappointing season in Toledo last year where he batted just .220 with a .304 OBP and no power. Will that be the fate of Clete? I certainly hope not but once major league pitchers figure him out we can expect his stats to take a downturn. However it pans out, he’s looked great in the field, at bat and on the basepaths and has opened numerous eyes. The rest is all up to him as he’s been given a clear shot at the future for the Tigers or other teams.

You can get the raw pitch f/x data directly from MLB.com. Thanks to Billfer @ the Detroit Tigers Weblog for pointing me in the correct direction for some useful pitch f/x tools and other examples.

While the large number of walks allowed was glaringly obvious tonight, the problem isn’t a new one this year. Going into tonight Detroit pitchers lead the American League with a WHIP (Walks Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.59, the bullpen had a WHIP of 1.65.

This will get worse after tonights game. While I have no doubt that Tiger hitters will perform up to expectations, it might not matter unless Detroit pitchers can turn around their own issues. When Bostons’ bullpen ran into trouble in the seventh inning they were able to bring in Hideki Okajima to shut down Detroit. When Bostons’ bullpen began bleeding in the eighth inning they were able bring out Jonathan Papelbon stop it. Detroit has no such go-to bullpen pitcher that can be depended upon and this needs to change.

The bullpen must be more than Bobby Seay who can be depended on to get a K against a lefty when needed but not for more than an inning of work. The team cannot wait until the return of either Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya, both of whom are making progress.

Pitching coach Chuck Hernandez has a lot of work ahead of him to figure out how some guys who were good Triple-A pitchers, such as Yorman Bazardo, can’t buy an out in the bigs.

• Game-worn Tigers cap.
• FSN Detroit T-Shirt and pen set.
• Autographed FSN Rod Allen and Mario Impemba photo.
• Tigers player photo cards.
• Comerica Park pencil.
• Tigers Pride pin.
• Game Program from inaugural game at Comerica Park.
• Ticket holder and limited edition pin from inaugural game at Comerica Park.
• 2005 All Star Game luggage tag and beaded necklace.
• Tigers sticker, wristband and rally towel.
• Magglio Ordonez, Joel Zumaya, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Guillen player magnets.

Well, the package arrived today and was well worth it. The money went to the Tiny Tigers, a t-ball club of the Boys and Girls Clubs of Southeastern Michigan. The game-worn cap we got says ’31′ under it so I’m assuming it belonged to Zach Miner though I’m partial to the Game Program from the inaugural game played at Comerica Park. I wasn’t at the game yet it’s strangely nice to have the memento. My wife is a fan of the Rod & Mario signed pictures.

The Tigers play two games on national television this weekend. They will play on FOX tomorrow at 3:55pm and then on ESPN Sunday at 8:05pm. These will be the first games that I will get to watch for the Tigers on TV and unfortunately it will be Joe Buck (FOX) and Joe Morgan (ESPN) announcing. Ugh. Only a few years ago I would be complaining about the lack of national exposure and now I’d rather watch the game on FSN Detroit.

I will be in attendance at the Sunday evening game to watch Justin Verlander’s second start. I’ll hopefully post some pictures afterward.

Maybe teams are just reluctant to part ways with pitchers right now or maybe Detroit doesn’t have good enough bargaining chips in Marcus Thames and/or Brandon Inge. Either way, help from outside of the current organization is very much needed to help the team protect leads handed off by Tiger starters and the all-star lineup. Manager Jim Leyland doesn’t seem too optimistic however of the prospects of outside help:

“Nobody’s going to parachute in here that’s going to be our savior,” Leyland said. “We can’t make our bullpen, in the next 10 days, as good as if we had Zumaya and Rodney. We can’t do it. So, forget about it.”

Leyland is probably correct that replacing those two isn’t going to happen but it also isn’t needed. The current bullpen does have some good arms in Bobby Seay and hopefully in Denny Bautista. Zach Miner will continue to eat innings and, while inconsistent, has always provided the team with some solid pitching. A pitcher like Michael Wuertz can only help bring consistency to the Tiger bullpen instead of games that see 3-4 pitchers each outing as Leyland tries to keep his guys fresh. Wuertz’s 79 K’s in 72 innings pitched last season could also add some much needed pop to the ‘pen.

Being that my tickets showed up a few weeks ago, I couldn’t be more ready to go to the game and get the season started. I’m hoping that it doesn’t turn out like the Cleveland Indians 2007 Opening Day in which the snow just wouldn’t stop. If you’re going to the game be sure to keep an eye on the weather.

As for other news today:

• Jim Leyland believes the team is not ready to play. Kurt @ Mack Ave Tigers noticed an inconsistent message, though I’ll take Jim Leyland’s thoughts on the team over Tom Gages’ opinion.
• Jim Leyland has finalized the rotation order, which I’ve outlined below. I don’t think anyone is surprised that Jim went with a lefty/righty mix.
  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Kenny Rogers
  3. Jeremy Bonderman
  4. Nate Robertson
  5. Dontrelle Willis
• Willis got roughed up a bit in the fourth inning of today’s game. Willis isn’t making me very comfortable as he continues to give way to many walks, 4 in 3.1 innings today and 11 over 13.2 innings this spring.

The Texas Rangers added right-hander Kazuo Fukumori to their 40-man roster Monday after finalizing his $3 million, two-year contract agreed to last month.

To make room on the roster, the Rangers designated for assignment infielder Chris Shelton, who was acquired from Detroit in a Dec. 5 trade for outfielder Freddy Guzman. Texas has 10 days to trade, release or outright Shelton to the minor leagues.

I had anticipated him giving Ben Broussard a run for his money for the primary role at first base this next year, and he still might. His loss of power probably had a bit to do with this decision but it’s a move that they just might regret, at least some at Lone Star Ball seem to already be regretting it.

I’d love to see Chris get back on-track this year regardless of who he plays for and at what level. I believe he has the ability to be a very serviceable 1B with spurts of power.

Below is where they placed within the Florida organization:

1. Cameron Maybin – #1 (A-)
2. Eulogio De La Cruz – #8 (B-)
3. Dallas Trahern – #13 (C+)
4. Burke Badenhop – #18 (C)

Having known next to nothing about the Marlins farm system before the trade, I was surprised not to see these prospects making a larger impact. I guess my largest surprise was the C+ grade for Dallas Trahern. I can only assume that John believes that Trahern will have a hard time translating his low strikeout rate and high groundball rate into outs at higher levels.

Andrew Miller wasn’t listed as he’s no longer considered a prospect since he couldn’t be considered a MLB rookie. He’s still very much a work in progress though and another high-impact player that the Marlins acquired.

None of these prospects have changed their grades from last year’s rating. Alright, that’s pretty much all I’ll do looking back and start looking forward. Hard to let go :)