The system has classified many fastballs here, but I’m skeptical as to the accuracy of the pitch identifications. For now though, I’ll have to trust that it’s correct or figure out what the type_confidence field means. That said, it’s probably not far off as thirteen of the pitches, in which we have data, are above 90MPH. The fastest ball that the team hit out was 94.7MPH, which was Miguel Cabrera’s third home run of the year against Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia. Below is a graph detailing the speed of each pitch the Tigers hit for a homer:

The slowest was a 73.3MPH curveball to Marcus Thames, his only of the year so far. This particular ball hung right up into the middle of the strikezone and wasn’t inside (since those are normally the pitches that Marcus will take deep). Actually, most of the pitches that the Tigers have taken deep were right down the heart of the plate, as you can see below:

The strike zone above is just an approximate since each batter will be slightly different, but this will give you an idea of pitch location. Tigers haven’t taken inside pitches deep much this year with the ball to the right of the image being a home run by Ivan Rodriguez.

To opposing pitchers, leave a fast ball up in the strike zone and the Tigers will make you pay, though this is likely true with any team. When compared against other teams in the Major Leagues, Detroit is now tied for 5th with the most home runs (10 teams have 27 or more home runs) and 8th in slugging percentage.

• Bottom 1st: Curtis Granderson singles on a ground ball to second baseman Alwin Perez.
• Bottom 3rd: Curtis Granderson flies out to left fielder David Lough.
• Bottom 6th: Curtis Granderson triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Wilson Tucker.
• Bottom 8th: Curtis Granderson lines out to center fielder Adrian Ortiz.

He was unable to score off the triple. The Whitecaps faced the Burlington Bee’s who started Alexander Caldera who was Kansas City’s 13th round draft pick from ’07. Caldera was making his third start of the season and had been shutting down lefties allowing only 3 hits, 0 walks and striking out 7 over 6 innings.

Great to see Curtis making consistent contact. Jim Leyland had stated that he wanted Curtis to get 25 at-bats in the minor leagues before he joined the team but according to Danny Knobler that wasn’t a literal statement:

“I had a good talk with him,” Leyland said. “We just want to make sure he has enough at-bats so that he comes back and can be effective. It’s one thing to have enough to play, and another to have enough to be effective.

“He might go down there for three days and feel like he’s right on it, and wants to come back. Those are the (baseball) rules. If they say they’re ready, they’re ready.”

I suspect we’ll see Curtis pretty soon if he continues to feel no pain.

Thomas never took an at-bat at even the Triple-A level before making the Tigers big league team and spent all of the 2007 season with the Double-A Erie Seawolves. There he showed acceptable hitting and decent patience but not much power. He ended the season with a .280/.359/405 line over 528 at-bats. One would expect such a youngster to come up and struggle for at least a little while as they adjust to big league pitching. Last year’s preseason favorite for AL ROY, Alex Gordon, certainly struggled before getting the hang of it late in the season and into the current season. I expected such a struggle for Clete but so far he seems very much at home.

With the help of MLB’s Gameday pitch-by-pitch data (called pitch f/x), we can take a look at what pitches opposing teams have been using trying to get him out. Get a good look at what pitches Thomas likes and which he is able to lay off. My intial expectations were to see him swinging at a number of out of the strike zone pitches and being a bit of a free swinger. He hadn’t, up until yesterday’s game, had a walk all season. Below is a look at all pitches, through yesterday (April 12th, 2008), that Clete has seen. For all graphs I have weeded out a number of bunts that he’s been asked to lay down (he’s a good bunter btw). The breakout shows balls put in play regardless of the result, called ball and strikes which include foul balls.

From this you can see that he has been a pretty good judge of the strike zone but does tend like swing at balls thrown outside a bit (keep in mind that he bats left handed so outside is to the left of the chart). Below is a further breakout of balls that were strikes which further shows that these are often ones he struggles with as well.

You can see with this strike chart that Clete will also swing at balls that are above the strike zone but has, thus far, been able to make contact and foul them off. His sweet spot, which is no surprise, is directly in the middle of the strike zone, if just a little outside. He hasn’t been able to successfully hit balls that are low in the strike zone though there has been few opportunities.

Just for completeness, below is a graph detailing all called ‘balls’ thrown to Thomas. He’s layed off some balls thrown on the edge of the strike zone, particularly pitches that are low. Other than a few, all are clearly outside the strike zone.

While his early success is very nice to see we should all keep our hopes in check. In 2006 Brent Clevlen was called up from Double-A and went on a tear through 31 games hitting .281 and slugging .641. This was promptly followed up by a very disappointing season in Toledo last year where he batted just .220 with a .304 OBP and no power. Will that be the fate of Clete? I certainly hope not but once major league pitchers figure him out we can expect his stats to take a downturn. However it pans out, he’s looked great in the field, at bat and on the basepaths and has opened numerous eyes. The rest is all up to him as he’s been given a clear shot at the future for the Tigers or other teams.

You can get the raw pitch f/x data directly from MLB.com. Thanks to Billfer @ the Detroit Tigers Weblog for pointing me in the correct direction for some useful pitch f/x tools and other examples.

Brandon Inge has been spectacular to start off the year and looked unlike the Inge of 2007. He’s shown great plate discipline through the first couple games, as well as back in Spring Training, and continued to show that he can play nearly any position in the field competently. He’s earned multiple walks and shown power out of the gate, yet Miguel Cabrera is better. This first three-game sweep by the Royals has brought the Inge-supporters out in droves, but nothing has really changed. If anything, Brandon is helping find himself a starting spot elsewhere which can only benefit Detroit later in the season when particular needs are more apparent.

If there is anything to be concerned about it is the one thing that can really hold this team back; injuries. The season has started with many key players out (Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Curtis Granderson) and now Gary Sheffield is appearing to have as serious problem. There have been some mixed messages in what has been in the crowd, but as Blake points out, it does not sound good. Miguel Cabrera will take Shef’s place in DH today.

Today Nate Robertson will look to carry his successful Spring Training starts into the regular season. For the Chicago White Sox, Jose Contreras will take the mound. If there is any pitcher that the Tiger bats should come alive against, it is Jose. Detroit took him for 26 hits and 4 walks in 18 IP over the 2007 season and slugged .587. He was just bad in ’07 and didn’t look as if he had straightened out at all this past spring.

Game time is 1:05 PM @ Comerica Park.

The first is confusion over Jim’s unhappiness with the change given that Edgar Rentaria would fill the leadoff role for the Tigers better than Curtis Granderson, while still not the ideal leadoff man. Over the last three years Edgar has had a higher OBP than Curtis Granderson while Curtis has out slugged Edgar each season. Given this I’d rather see them swapped in the lineup after Curtis returns in 3 weeks, though with Jim managing this is highly unlikely.

The second confusing point is that, according to the article, Leyland reiterated that Pudge Rodriguez is likely to continue to leadoff against lefties. I understand that Pudge is hot this spring but this doesn’t make any sense. The entire initial purpose for batting Pudge first when a LHP is on the mound was due to Curtis Granderson’s horrendous OBP against lefties. Edgar does not have this problem and over his career has hit better against lefties.

I know that Jim loves to tinker with the lineup to the point of over-thinking it but I am failing to understand his logic. The below comment certainly didn’t help:

“Renteria is not a huge, huge RBI guy,” Leyland said. “But he’s one of the best in baseball at knocking in huge RBIs.”

Maybe he’s been spending too much time with Dusty Baker in the Grapefruit League. I hope one consolation for Jim is that while Edgar would no longer be in a prime RBI slot he will now be in a position to score even more runs. Something I’m sure Leyland and Baker can both agree on.

…the Tigers put Granderson on the disabled list with a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger. Granderson is expected to miss three weeks.

Curtis was hit by a pitch in yesterdays matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies, but by most accounts he was going to be just fine. I’ll assume that we will be seeing some of Ryan Raburn filling in to cover the large outfield at Comerica Park to start the season. Jason Beck also sees Raburn breaking camp with the team now. Ian also mentions Brandon Inge, unlikely in my option, or Freddy Guzman as potential replacements as well.

This has implications beyond who’s manning centerfield for the Tigers but for the Tiger lineup. Curtis had locked down the leadoff spot which now needs filled. I’d like to see Gary Sheffield be placed there since his hitting is in decline but he still is bringing a big OBP to the team. I don’t think that is likely and we’ll see Placido Polanco or Pudge (ugh) instead.

I’m hoping this is an early april fools joke along with speculations of a Dontrelle Willis injury.

While details aren’t available, the text of the ESPN article leads me to believe that this deal begins after this season with Cabrera playing under his existing 1-year deal:

Cabrera, 24, was eligible for arbitration in 2009 and could become a free agent after the season ended. He will earn $11.3 million in 2008, and then an average of $19 million per year through 2016.

This will be clarified as the deal is formally announced. My initial reaction is that I’m very glad to see this deal get done. I had assumed it would or the initial trade would not have been completed anyway. This, I believe, is the largest contract in Tiger history and Cabrera is certainly worthy of it.

[UPDATE] – Some very quick reactions around the blogosphere and news outlets to this deal. The general consensus is that Detroit got a good deal as expectations had been raised for a substantially larger deal, though this is a significant sum of money as the ESPN article now points out:

Overall, it would become the fourth-richest contract in baseball history. Cabrera would trail Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez ($275 million), Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter ($189 million) and Boston outfielder Manny Ramirez ($160 million) in the total salary package listing.

Detroit will be getting Miguel during the prime of his playing years which sets this contract apart from the others. Alex Rodriguez was 32 when he signed his recent $275M 10-year contract, though he was 25 when he signed a $252M deal with Texas. Derek Jeter was 27 when his deal with the Yankees was signed and Manny was 29 years old. The Tigers have likely signed a player who’s skills will increase through the contract and Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus points out that PECOTA doesn’t have Cabrera in decline until past 32 years old.

Other Links:

• Billfer discusses how the size of this deal stacks up against projections using Baseball Prospectus MORP and other salary projections.
• Sports Unfiltered laments over why the Angels should have been the ones signing Cabrera.
• Lee Panas from Tiger Tales sees many good things in this deal.
• Kurt at Mack Ave. Tigers believes this is a very good deal too.
• Danny Knobler verifies that the deal has been agreed to. Additionally, he’s dropping a bombshell of Curtis Granderson going to the DL for 3 weeks. What?

[UPDATE-2] – The deal is a 7-year extension to the existing 1-year 11M dollar contract according to Danny Knobler at MLive. This puts Cabrera in Detroit through the 2015 season, so still very long.

It’s an eight-year deal, for an average of $19 million a year, or $152 million total. But the eight years includes 2008 (Cabrera had already signed a one-year deal at $11.3 million), so the new contract will run through 2015.

So in reality, Cabrera is signing for seven additional years, and a little more than $140 million.

On a side note, Al Avila made an appearance on the FSN broadcast today and didn’t confirm or deny the rumor, saying only that they were progressing in negotiations. I’m assuming that since he is a exec with the ballclub he cannot/won’t confirm anything until the deal is complete. According to the ESPN sources, the only thing left is a physical on Monday.

Below is opinion on this deal from Buster Olney:

Frankly, I think a bit too much is made on his weight and ability to keep it off. Sure, he’s in better shape and I’m sure that helps him. But the biggest question facing Cabrera’s ability in the future isn’t his weight.

The main thing about it is I’m just doing what I want to do and just be more selective at the plate, try to hit some strikes and take the balls. I’m just trying to see 4-5 pitches per at-bat.

A noble goal for Pudge but it got me thinking about how much patience other Tiger batters show. To take a look at how patient Tiger batters are I took a look at two stats in particular. The first stat is Pitches per Plate-Appearance which is a straight forward look at how many pitches the batter sees. The second stat is Walks per Plate Appearance which will show the percentage of plate appearances in which the batter works a walk.

The below table shows how the Tiger batters fared in each of the described statistics.

There were some surprises for me in these stats. Brandon Inge lead the team with 4.23 pitches seen per at-bat which didn’t quite mesh with my expectations. Brandon struck out at a high rate last year but also made pitchers work. Detroit’s other solid defensive replacement, Ramon Santiago, was at the other end of the spectrum seeing the least number of pitches per at bat and walking very little.

Mike Hessman showed that there is some difference between him and Marcus Thames, thought his average and slugging stats from Toledo look eerily close to Marcus. Hessman ranked in the upper half of the team for both key plate discipline statistics seeing more pitches per PA than Sheffield.

The Tigers haven’t been known in the past few years as being a particularly patient team. Of this past off-season acquisitions of Edgar Rentaria, Miguel Cabrera and Jacque Jones, Rentaria shows the most patience. Cabrera, while a very talented hitter already, is still a young batter so more patience will come with time but he already brings OBP. Jacque Jones shows the least discipline of the three.

If Pudge is looking to climb up the ladder, the good news is there is nowhere but up to go.

Hope you enjoy.

While not a big surprise it is great news to see that Curtis will likely be roaming in the outfield at Comerica Park for quite some time. I had speculated a deal closer to Grady Sizemore’s 6-year $23.45M but Granderson out did that by a bit. As a fan I can say I’m very excited to watch him for years to come.

That said, to have staying power there are still some real holes in his game that need work, starting with the ability to hit lefties. It appears as though he thinks he’ll get over that hurdle quickly:

“As I see it, there’s always something to improve upon,” he said. “Right now, it’s going to be in addressing how to hit left-handed pitchers more consistently and continue to cut down my strikeouts. But moving into 2009, I’m sure there will be another list of things to improve upon. I still have a long ways to go. I’ll just try my best not to press too much.”

The contract is very heavy-tailed to the end of the deal but his salary slightly more than doubles next year from $410,000 to $1M. I believe this also make Curtis the Tiger with the longest contract in terms of years left.

Now that this is behind them they can try to finish up a deal with Miguel Cabrera. I also wonder if, since he is in the same situation that Curtis Granderson is in now, the Tigers could stomach yet another contract with Justin Verlander. Would that make sense? I believe so, and for all the reasons that this deal made sense for Detroit.