Comments on: Detroit ZiPS projections released http://www.dtownbaseball.com/2007/12/08/detroit-zips-projections-released/ A Detroit Tigers Blog Tue, 02 Dec 2008 12:39:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: Eric Jackson http://www.dtownbaseball.com/2007/12/08/detroit-zips-projections-released/#comment-8523 Eric Jackson Sun, 09 Dec 2007 01:56:55 +0000 http://www.dtownbaseball.com/2007/12/08/detroit-zips-projections-released/#comment-8523 I'd agree, It seems the most optimistic would be a slight improvement but I'd guess we'll see a slight dropoff but nothing to the degree of .024 off the batting average. Vic is another Marlins transplant in the Tiger system. ugh. I’d agree, It seems the most optimistic would be a slight improvement but I’d guess we’ll see a slight dropoff but nothing to the degree of .024 off the batting average.

Vic is another Marlins transplant in the Tiger system. ugh.

]]> By: Avocado http://www.dtownbaseball.com/2007/12/08/detroit-zips-projections-released/#comment-8522 Avocado Sun, 09 Dec 2007 01:02:02 +0000 http://www.dtownbaseball.com/2007/12/08/detroit-zips-projections-released/#comment-8522 Man I love projections, let me look them over. Hmm... Those offensive projections look a little low. I'm not sure of the specifics of how ZiPs is calculated, but it looks like they might overly suppress optimistic outliers. The numbers they provide in the Curtis Granderson spotlight seem to suggest this. Last year Granderson hit: .302 AVG .361 OBP .552 SLG .913 OPS The ZiPs 15% most optimistic projections for 2008 are: .297 AVG .374 OBP .534 SLG .908 OPS Their most optimistic projections result in Granderson having a slightly worse year in 2008. Meanwhile, the 15% most pessimistic projections for 2008 are: .256 AVG .314 OBP .429 SLG .734 OPs That would equal a dramatic drop off, to below average outfield performance. Granderson's 2007 campaign was superb, and it would be difficult to improve upon it in 2008. But given that he will be 27 next year, an age at which many major leaguer batters put up their best numbers, I don't think it would be outlandish to suggest that he might improve slightly. I would expect the most optimistic projections would reflect at least a modest improvement. Overall, the pitching numbers look slightly optimistic, especially in terms of ERA. Again, I think this suggests that ZiPs projections skew slightly low for offensive projection. Who is this 'Vic Darensbourg'? A 37 year-old lefty that they project as the sixth most effective pitcher on the Detroit roster? Man I love projections, let me look them over.

Hmm…

Those offensive projections look a little low. I’m not sure of the specifics of how ZiPs is calculated, but it looks like they might overly suppress optimistic outliers. The numbers they provide in the Curtis Granderson spotlight seem to suggest this.

Last year Granderson hit:

.302 AVG
.361 OBP
.552 SLG
.913 OPS

The ZiPs 15% most optimistic projections for 2008 are:

.297 AVG
.374 OBP
.534 SLG
.908 OPS

Their most optimistic projections result in Granderson having a slightly worse year in 2008. Meanwhile, the 15% most pessimistic projections for 2008 are:

.256 AVG
.314 OBP
.429 SLG
.734 OPs

That would equal a dramatic drop off, to below average outfield performance. Granderson’s 2007 campaign was superb, and it would be difficult to improve upon it in 2008. But given that he will be 27 next year, an age at which many major leaguer batters put up their best numbers, I don’t think it would be outlandish to suggest that he might improve slightly. I would expect the most optimistic projections would reflect at least a modest improvement.

Overall, the pitching numbers look slightly optimistic, especially in terms of ERA. Again, I think this suggests that ZiPs projections skew slightly low for offensive projection.

Who is this ‘Vic Darensbourg’? A 37 year-old lefty that they project as the sixth most effective pitcher on the Detroit roster?

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