Prior to the season Will Carroll releases Positional Health Reports detailing the risk of injury to each starting player for each team. With the Tigers injuries continuing to rack up I thought it’d be interesting to take a look back at the report as it pertains to Detroit. Will is quick to point out what these ratings are and aren’t:

The one thing that is often misunderstood by people about these reports is that they actually don’t measure health–they measure risk. While it may seem like those are two sides of the same coin, it’s not quite that simple. Risk is a measure of probabilities rather than possibilities. It is quite possible to have a high risk of injury without suffering an injury, just as it’s possible to drive home with your eyes closed. While the measure of that risk is injury, a binary result of “is he injured or isn’t he?”, the actual measure of the success of our system is the prediction of injury over a population.

But for the Tigers, some of these probabilities have turned painfully true. Magglio sat out Sunday’s tilt against the Mets with stiffness in his leg which turned out not to be serious but I initially assumed it was another in a long list of injuries to the Tigers this year. Last year was a great year for Detroit, not only by making the World Series, but also due to the limited handful of injuries sustained during the course of the year. The current season has been quite different, so below I’ve listed out Will Carroll’s risk rating along with injuries sustained by Tigers starters:

- Sean Casey (1B) – High Risk – No absences. Has not had any serious injury to-date this season. He is high risk and was injured during Game 1 of the ALCS returning for the World Series. He’s not the most agile player but has held up well so far this year. He’s also seeing lowered playing time due to the dual use of Casey/Thames at first base.

- Placido Polanco (2B) – Normal Risk – No absences. Has not missed a game due to injury to-date, though left a game while injured on 5/26. Placido has generally been healthy which is good for Detroit since his stint on the disabled list last year hurt the team rather bad.

- Carlos Guillen (SS) – High Risk – No long term absences. Has missed games this year due to injury with the most notable being from May 31-June 5th with a strained left groin. Additionally he left Sunday’s game with hamstring injury and is day-to-day. An injury here would hurt as the long term shortstop propsect is currently either Omar Infante or Neifi Perez. Regardless of Guillen’s error total it would be a downgrade with either of those players there and Infante is the best batter of the two. Though using Infante at shortstop long-term leaves the team significantly less agile so let’s hope Carlos can stick around with the team.

- Brandon Inge (3B) – Normal Risk – No long-term absences. Has sat out May 31st-June 5th with a broken left toe which is still bothering him. This doesn’t seem to have greatly affected him at-bat as he went deep Sunday but likely does at third-base to some degree.

- Ivan Rodriguez (C) – Elevated Risk -No long-term absences. Pudge has gotten banged up behind the plate quite a bit this year and was listed day-to-day after taking a particularly bad foul-tip on April 27th. Mike Rabelo’s good play in May has allowed Leyland to rest Rodriguez on a regular basis keeping many of these knicks from turning into serious injuries.

- Craig Monroe (LF) – Normal Risk – No absences.

- Curtis Granderson (CF) – Normal Risk – No absences.

- Magglio Ordonez (RF) – Normal Risk – No long-term absences. Sunday was his first day resting due to stiffness in his left knee. By all accounts this isn’t a serious injury but worrisome since he has had serious injuries to this knee in his past. This year he’s been outstanding though with many believing it’s due to him finally getting over past injuries.

- Gary Sheffield (DH) – Elevated Risk – No absences.

- Jeremy Bonderman (SP1) – Normal Risk – Was placed on the 15-day disabled list due to a blister on his right middle finger. This obviously isn’t a truly worrisome injury and he has changed his grip slightly to reduce the likelihood of a similar injury.

- Justin Verlander (SP2) – High Risk – No absences.

- Kenny Rogers (SP3) – Elevated Risk – Has yet to pitch after being diagnosed with a blood clot in his left shoulder on 3/25. He made his first rehab start yesterday with Toledo and will likely be back with the team in a couple of weeks.

- Nate Robertson (SP4) – Normal Risk – Currently on the 15-day disabled list with a ‘tired arm’. This is rather concerning due with no real explanation of an injury and Robertsons insistence that there is nothing wrong with him. It is clear that he had a very bad May going from a 2.43 ERA in April to 6.12 ERA in May. His June ERA currently sits at infinite. Ouch.

- Mike Maroth (SP5) – High Risk – No injury related absences. Did miss a start due to a bad flu.

- Todd Jones (CL) – Elevated Risk – No absences.

- Joel Zumaya (KR) – Elevated Risk – Out since May 03 with a ruptured tendon in his right middle finger. He’s currently on the 15-day disabled list though there is no timetable for his return.

Will did not go over bullpen members using this reasoning:

I can’t–and won’t-–cover every player. In large part, I ignore bench players and relievers because they are inherently replaceable. If a team loses a middle reliever, studies have shown that there’s usually very little bottom line effect; certainly nothing like losing a closer or even a mid-line starter.

Probably true but some injuries in the bullpen have affected the Tigers with Rodney going on the 15-day disabled list with right biceps tendinitis and Jason Grilli sitting out a few games with left knee soreness. Early in the season, before we learned the stink that was Mesa in 2007, Jose Mesa was on the 15-day disabled list with a right groin pull which is also where Zach Miner currently is, though with right elbow tendinitis.

While the starters have had their normal bumps and bruises, the bullpen has sustained the majority of the injuries this year. The bullpen has also been the area in most need of improvement. I’m not sure if the two are related and while they don’t initially seem to be players will often play through injuries oftentimes one’s that they shouldn’t.