The recent news of Vance Wilson’s re-aggravation of a pre-season shoulder injury could mean a much longer term role on the big league team for backup catcher Mike Rabelo than envisioned. Vance was a staple of the 2006 team and was known by his consistent play throughout the year behind Pudge Rodriguez but was injured during Spring Training and has not played with Detroit yet. After a long run on the disabled list Vance started what was to be a week long rehab stint in Toledo but that ended Thursday after only 3 games:

“I took a swing and miss on the first pitch of my second at-bat,” Wilson said. “I could feel it even when I hit. So I hit my third at-bat, and by that point, it had swelled back up.”

While the full details are not in, Wilson believes that this setback will mean surgery which would end the season for him. Even if surgery is not required this is obviously not an injury that will go away quickly and Rabelo’s services will be needed for quite some time. Because of this significant change I want to take a look at how Rabelo has fared so far and what this could mean for Detroit through the rest of the season.

Mike Rabelo started the season not knowing how long he’d be with the team and started off rather rough. Despite hitting just .059 through April, Mike quickly bounced back and hit .367 in May and .444 so far this June.

While impressive, this pace isn’t one that is likely to continue for an extended period and one that isn’t projected to continue either. Projections were only done on Rabelo by a few since the likelihood of his play wasn’t the greatest. He did start the 2005 season as the backup catcher in Class AA Erie but having started on the championship 2006 International League Toledo Mudhens he passed muster to be projected by a few. Since his big league experience totaled a single plate appearance these projections are a bit more suspect.

As you can see these projections are fairly consistent. The Marcels projection is the most optimistic but it is also based on a smaller number of AB’s than the rest and than is reasonable now. These have him batting around .240/.300/.345 which isn’t overall an optimistic view but these are just projections and I suspect undershooting his ability. Rabelo has consistently batted .270 between Erie and Toledo in 2005 and 2006 and while I don’t see him hitting .270 I don’t see him undershooting that far. That, of course, isn’t based on any math ;)

Hitting isn’t the only area important for a catcher as there is also his performance behind the plate. Not only his fielding percentage but also his ability to call pitches and help the pitcher to a win. The Tigers are 9-8 with Rabelo behind the dish and his stats are currently on-par with Rodriguez albeit with a smaller sample size. The below table is the Tigers pitching splits with each catcher behind the plate:

While the batting average and on-base percentages are close the walk and strikeout percentages are a bit different and worse with Rabelo behind the dish. At first glance this can be concerning but taking a look at who Rabelo has caught for can account for some difference. He has caught 4 games each for Mike Maroth and Chad Durbin and once for Virgil Vasquez, each of which are more walk prone and less prone to strikeouts than the rest of the Tiger lineup. He’s also caught four games for Verlander but only two of the 17 games caught for Jeremy Bonderman and two for Nate Robertson as well.

These stats also tell us that Jim Leyland has not shy’d away from playing Rabelo regardless of who is on the mound which certainly speaks some to the confidence he has with Rabelo. This is still the largest area of improvement Rabelo will need to make though. Through the 2006 season Vance was had a slightly higher walk percentage over Rodriguez (8.3% to 7.8%) and just slightly higher strikeout percentage than Rodriguez (18.3% to 18.1%.) Though Tigers pitching last year was quite a bit better in both regards especially in the bullpen but the differences in percentages are concerning.

However, Rabelo is not Rodriguez and not Vance Wilson and certainly not expected to be Rodriguez. He does need to perform up to Vance’s level though for Detroit and slotting in pretty well at this point but with areas he needs to work on and that much is to be expected.

One area he has been alright at is stopping stolen bases, at least on par with Rodriguez. Rabelo has caught 4-for-10 with Rodriguez catching 8-for-20 both having a 40% caught stealing stat. So while I’m maybe not as optimistic as Tom Gage:

B is for — the better swings Mike Rabelo has been taking. Maybe not as a starter, but he’s going to be a major league catcher for a long time. After all, Paul Bako is in his 11th year.

I do think Mike Rabelo will be a solid backup for the Tigers through the rest of the year. His improvement has shown his ability to adjust both behind the plate and at bat. His sizzling May stats will come back in-line but likely end up ahead of Vance’s .256 of 2006. Rabelo has likely put himself in a good position to become a long term backup catcher after Wilson’s contract is up at the end of 2008 and Detroit will do fine with him there.