Carlos Guillen has made no secret that he would like a long term contract in place before Spring Training begins. This begs the question of “How much Carlos is worth to the Tigers?”
Carlos has an immense following here in Detroit and I’m a fan myself, however has he hit his peak? Carlos is 31 and not going to be at the shortstop position for much longer, as evidenced by his errors last year and fagility. Guillen had a stellar year last year hitting his highest yearly BA and OBP (except his first year which only had 39 AB’s), but it wasn’t viewed as great from the start as you can see in this link from a post on Beck’s Blog. With Casey locked down for one year, Guillen could make the shift but Shelton is also vying for that role and his tradeability isn’t going to be high though his potential is good.
Guillen will want a contract that will lock him up for a number of years and for the Tigers right now its a tough situation. Without a future infielder in waiting the Tigers hands are tied in many ways for the next couple of years but Guillen will likely look beyond that and that could be dangerous for Detroit. Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) has Guillen’s worth declining rapidly year over year through 2010 with his worth higher than his salary this year for the next couple of years.
I would love to see Detroit sign Carlos to a 3-year, at most, deal for around 7-8M a year and I think this will be far to low (I would obviously love much lower too but I’m trying to be semi-realistic). I also wouldn’t be surprised for Detroit to take the bait and sign him up for years to come for some real money and the success of that is in doubt by me. Either way we will likely get an answer fairly soon.
What do you think Guillen is worth?
D-Town Baseball
2 Comments
First I’m glad to have another Tigers Blog to add to the daily list, so good work so far and I hope you stick around.
Your assesment on Guillen is pretty good. Barring injury, I think he’s got 3 more seasons of .300 average left in him, and $7-8M sounds right. I might even prefer to give him a little more for a 2 year contract with an option attatched.
Beyond that will really depend on the status of 1B, and if there’s any decent SS to be had around the league. Who knows, maybe Giarratano will learn how to hit and it wont be an issue.
Hey Eric,
Another great article, this site has quickly become a must read for me.
I’ve got to say Guillen has the tigers over a barrel. As a switch hitter he is one of only three current tigers who can hit from the left side, and there aren’t any in the minors either. Last season he had the highest OPS among SS, lead the team in stolen bases and was voted team MVP. The great season and being healthy has his price at an all time high. What really has the Tigers in a pickle though are 2 facts.
1) He has made it publicly known that he wants to stay and sign a long term deal. From a public relations viewpoint not rewarding him would make the team look bad. And if they try to wait till after 07 he could get upset and leave because his request was denied. So the tigers may feel they have to sign him now or go looking for a replacement.
That leads to problem 2) The only “quality” SS on the FA market next winter is Eckstien. Who would still want a large sum (not as much as Guillen though) and he would be a year older and a definite drop off.
From Guillen’s standpoint I don’t see him settling for a 2 or 3 year deal. He know’s this is his last chance at the bank and if he’s smart he won’t except anything less than a 4 year deal with a team option on the 5th with a large buy out. by this summers market it should be somewhere between 10 and 11 mil per. (ouch) The tiger’s only hope is a little favorite team discount, either that or everyone who had money spent it all(not likely).
I do have one question though. What is the nature of his injury history? How likely is it to occur again? And how was his fielding prior to last season?Guess thats 3.
Thanks again.
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[...] The three-headed hydra of Detroit Media looked at Carlos Guillen’ contract-talks today. (Morosi blogged a bit extra). Will the blogosphere follow? (Eric looked at this question in early January, to be fair!) [...]
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